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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Discussion in 'Forex Discussion' started by LiteForex Official, Nov 17, 2015.

  1. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-05 08:50 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR rose significantly against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local highs of April 18. The growth of the euro is still promoted by the correction factors of the US dollar, which appeared after the new threats of Donald Trump to introduce import duties against Mexico. Analysts have again spoken about the risks to the US economy that these and similar restrictive measures bear. Also, USD is under pressure from the Fed policy, which may return to lower interest rates in the event of further deterioration in economic indicators. At the same time, the market is characterized by a rather low investor interest in risk. Published on Tuesday, macroeconomic statistics from the euro area prevented the emergence of a more confident uptrend in the instrument. CPI slowed down in May from +1.7% YoY to +1.2% YoY, which turned out to be worse than expectations. Core CPI for the same period corrected from +1.3% YoY to +0.8% YoY with the forecast of +0.9% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    GBP maintains an upward trend paired with USD, noting the new local highs of May 27. Published on Tuesday, the macroeconomic statistics from the UK was negative, but there was no significant pressure on the pound. The UK Construction PMI fell sharply in May from 50.5 to 48.6 points, while the forecast did not suggest any changes in the indicator. BRC Retail Sales Monitor in May also showed a decline of 3.0% YoY after rising by 3.7% YoY last month. Analysts expected an increase of +0.9% YoY. GBP is under additional pressure by the deadlock around Brexit. Teresa May did not manage to reach an agreement within the Parliament, which forced her to resign from the post of the Conservative Party leader. Perhaps the new Prime Minister will be able to find other ways for dialogue, but investors fear that the process may be delayed. Only the selection of a new party leader can take more than a month.

    AUD/USD

    AUD continues to grow moderately against AUD, updating the highs of 10 May. The growth of the instrument proceeds against the background of the publication of not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as yesterday's decision of the RBA to lower the interest rate to 1.25% for the first time in 3 years. However, the decision of the regulator was quite predictable, and therefore the pressure on the Australian dollar was moderate. In the follow-up statement, the RBA noted that it is trying to maintain employment and inflation levels that remain below target levels. Moreover, RBA officials did not rule out further steps to ease monetary policy. Investors today are focused on the preliminary statistics on Australia's GDP for Q1 2019. On a quarterly basis, the economy accelerated from +0.2% QoQ to +0.4% QoQ, which was slightly below the forecast of +0.5% QoQ. YoY, the growth of the index slowed down from +2.3% to +1.8%.

    USD/JPY

    USD is consolidating against JPY after active decline at the end of the last trading week. The yen is supported by a low investor interest in risk, as well as corrective sentiment on the US currency. However, the activity on the instrument remains quite low. Nikkei Services PMI exerts some pressure on JPY on Wednesday. In May, according to preliminary estimates, the figure dropped from 51.8 to 51.7 points, with a forecast of growth to 51.9 points. On Thursday, markets are expecting the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, who may reveal the regulator’s plans for monetary policy in the near future.

    Oil

    Oil prices are correcting after a steady decline at the end of the last trading week. The growth of quotations is largely technical in nature, while negative factors only intensify. In particular, it became known that Russia opposes further restrictions on oil production under the OPEC+ deal. The report of the American Petroleum Institute reflected the growth of oil reserves for the week as of May 31 by 3.545 million barrels after a decrease of 5.265 million barrels for the previous period. On Wednesday, investors expect to publish similar statistics from the US Department of Energy.
  2. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-06 08:42 (GMT+2)

    EUR/USD

    EUR showed ambiguous trading against USD on Wednesday. In the morning, EUR was trading higher and the instrument was able to update its local highs of April 17, but then traders began to actively get rid of long positions, which caused a significant pullback. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was the aggravation of relations between the Italian government and the EU leadership after representatives of the European Commission announced the validity of the claims. Italy faces a large fine for the excess of public debt, which last year amounted to more than 130%. Wednesday's macroeconomic statistics from euro area provided moderate support to the instrument. Markit Services PMI in May increased from 52.8 to 52.9 points with the forecast of the decline to 52.5 points. Markit Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 51.5 to 51.8 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 51.6 points.

    GBP/USD

    Yesterday, GBP broke off its moderate growth against USD and showed a downward reversal. In the first half of the day, consumer sentiment on the pound was supported by good macroeconomic statistics from the euro area and the UK. Markit UK Services PMI in May increased from 50.4 to 51.0 points with the forecast of the increase to 50.6 points only. With the opening of the US trading session, correctional sentiments returned to the market, supported by strong PMI data from ISM. Non-Manufacturing PMI reflected an increase from 55.5 to 56.9 points, although analysts did not expect the indicator value to change. During today's Asian session, the pair shows flat trading, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. On Thursday, investors are focused on the ECB interest rate meeting, as well as on the speech by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a decline against USD on Wednesday, departing from local highs of May 10 which were updated the day before. Certain pressure on the instrument was caused by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics released in Australia and China, but the main factor of the correction was the strengthening of the position of USD. During the Asian session on June 6, the pair is relatively stable and shows flat trading. Investors estimate Australian import and export statistics. In April, exports and imports increased by 3% after a decline of 2% last month. April Balance of Trade slightly decreased from AUD 4.887 billion to AUD 4.871 billion, which turned out to be somewhat worse than expectations.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed correctional growth against JPY on Wednesday, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In particular, investors paid attention to the extremely weak ADP Employment Change report. In May, the report reflected an increase in the private sector by only 27K new jobs after rising by 271K over the past month. The forecast assumed growth by 180K. Increased attention to the report is due to the upcoming publications on the US labor market on Friday.

    Oil

    Oil prices returned to decline on Wednesday, interrupting the development of the correction impulse formed the day before. Powerful pressure on the quotes on Wednesday was exerted by the US Department of Energy Crude Oil Inventory report, indicating a sharp increase in oil reserves in the country. For a week as of May 31, oil stocks in US warehouses increased by 6.771M barrels, after a decrease of 0.282M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.849M barrels. At the same time, the report also reflected an increase in oil production in the United States from 12.300M to 12.400M barrels per day.
  3. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-07 08:44 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed strong growth against USD on Thursday, recovering from a corrective decline of the previous day. The reason for the emergence of the uptrend was another weakening of USD against the background of the publication of not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the United States and the growth of trade tensions between the countries. On Wednesday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change reflected a sharp slowdown in job growth from 275K to 27K, which turned out to be drastically worse than forecasts (180K). Thursday's data indicated a decline in Nonfarm Productivity in Q1 2019 from 3.6% to 3.4%, with a forecast of 3.5%. Unit Labor Costs for the same period declined by 1.6% after the decline of 0.9% in the previous period. European statistics was more predictable, which provided moderate support for the euro. Euro area's GDP for Q1 2019 showed an increase of 0.4% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which fully coincided with the forecasts. The ECB kept the interest rate at 0%, noting that its growth is possible not earlier than the first half of 2020.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is trading flat against USD, remaining close to local highs, updated on Thursday. Despite the publication of weak statistics from the US, the pound was not able to consolidate in the uptrend, being under pressure from uncertain prospects around Brexit. On Thursday, investors were focused on the speech of the Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who is currently on a visit to Japan. The speech of the head of the regulator did not render any long-term support to the instrument, since it was largely devoted to the problems of investment funds. At the end of the week, investors expect the publication of Halifax UK House Price Index, as well as the release of an updated consumer inflation forecast. The May report on the US labor market will be more interesting.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a slight increase against USD on Thursday, weakening the downward corrective impulse formed the day before. During the Asian session, the instrument is again prone to decline, yet investors prefer to wait for the appearance of new drivers in the market. Friday's statistics from Australia was rather weak. AiG Construction Index went down from 42.6 to 40.4 points in May. Home Loans in April decreased by 1.2% after a decline of 2.5% in March. Analysts expected a decline of only 0.2%. Investment Lending for Homes in April showed a decrease of 2.2% after a decline of 2.7% in March.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY, ending yesterday’s trading session with a slight decrease. Pressure on USD was exerted by weak macroeconomic data from the United States published on Thursday. In addition, investors are cautiously waiting for the release of the May report on the US labor market, because according to the previously published ADP report, the real state of the market may be significantly worse than expectations. In turn, the yen continues to receive moderate support from the risks of developing US trade conflicts with China and Mexico and a possible interest rate cut by the Fed in the foreseeable future. The process of negotiations between the US and Mexico has not yet brought visible success, but the market as a whole is quite optimistic and expects that on June 10, import duties on Mexican goods will not be introduced.

    Oil

    Oil prices rose significantly on Thursday, departing from local lows of January 29, updated the day before. The growth of the instrument was largely technical in nature, whereas the former negative factors are still very strong. In particular, the market fears further decline in global demand amid a slowing global economy. A previously published report from the US Department of Energy also put strong pressure on quotes, reflecting an increase in oil production rates and indicating a sharp increase in inventories. On Friday, investors are focused on the May report on the US labor market. In addition, investors are waiting for Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.
  4. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-10 08:53 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR rose significantly against USD on Friday, updating local highs of March 22. The reason for the emergence of a confident upward trend was the extremely weak report from the US labor market, which reinforced concerns about the Fed rate cut. In May, Nonfarm Payrolls grew by 75K new jobs, while analysts had expected growth of 185K jobs. In April, the indicator grew by 224K. Average Weekly Hours in May remained at the same level of 34.4 hours, with the forecast for the indicator to rise to 34.5. Average Hourly Earnings in May increased by 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY, which again turned out to be worse than market expectations (+0.3% MoM and +3.2% YoY). During the Asian session on June 10, the pair is trading downwards, negatively reacting to ambiguous statistics from China.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed growth against USD on Friday, recovering from the uncertain dynamics of the second half of last week. The strengthening of the British currency was caused by weak data on the US labor market, while the macroeconomic background of the UK remained neutral. At the same time, investors enthusiastically greeted statistics on Halifax House Price Index. In May, prices showed an increase of 0.5% MoM after rising by 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts expected a decline of 0.2% MoM. During the Asian session on June 10, the instrument is relatively stable. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for new drivers to appear at the market. Today, investors focus on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Such indicators as Industrial Production, Trade Balance and GDP data for May are expected to be released. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the speech of the representative of the Bank of England Michael Saunders is expected.

    AUD/USD

    AUD rose moderately against USD on Friday, noting local highs of May 8. The growth of the instrument proceeded against the background of the publication of weak data on the US labor market; however, the Australian data were also quite disappointing. AiG Construction Index of Australia in May fell from 42.6 to 40.4 points, which was worse than the average market forecasts. Home Loans in April decreased by 1.2% after a decline of 2.5% in March. Analysts expected a decline of only 0.2%. During the Asian session on June 10, the instrument is trading downwards. Australian markets are closed today due to the Queen's Birthday, so investors are focused on news from the United States. Additional pressure on AUD was exerted by contradictory statistics on imports and exports from China.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed a decline against JPY at the end of last week, returning to the same local lows, updated on June 5. Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the US put significant pressure on the US currency and again increased the risks of easing monetary policy by the Fed. At the same time, USD receives moderate support from optimistic signals around the US-Mexico trade negotiations. It is possible that Donald Trump will postpone the imposition of import duties on Mexican goods, which should come into force today, June 10. During today's Asian session, the dollar is trading higher, with investors almost completely ignoring strong statistics from Japan. Japan's GDP in Q1 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ and 2.2% YoY, with the forecast of +0.5% QoQ and +2.1% YoY.

    Oil

    Oil prices recovered significantly at the end of last week, departing from local lows of January 29, updated on June 5. The quotes are supported by positive comments by the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Khalid Al-Falih, who said that Riyadh does not plan to increase production to compensate for current oil prices, which, in his opinion, remain low and do not imply an increase in investment in the industry. Instead, Saudi Arabia is in favor of extending the OPEC agreement, which ends at the end of this month. At the end of last week, quotes were also supported by Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the USA, the number of which for the reporting week dropped sharply from 800 to 789 units.
  5. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-11 08:42 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a slight decrease against USD on Monday, correcting after a strong growth of the instrument at the end of last week, when the euro updated local highs of March 22. The development of the "bearish" dynamics was due to the strengthening of USD in response to progress in the US-Mexico trade negotiations. Under the influence of a rather tough ultimatum on the part of Donald Trump, Mexico announced a number of measures against illegal migration, which ultimately made it possible to avoid an increase in import duties. Analysts are optimistic about this news, because they extrapolate this experience with Mexico to a situation with China, where a compromise has not yet been reached. Earlier, Donald Trump noted that he plans to discuss trade relations with Xi Jinping at the sites of the G20 Summit, which will be held on June 28 in Osaka.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed active decline against USD on Monday, almost completely offsetting the strong growth of the end of last week. Significant pressure on GBP was put by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial production in April decreased sharply by 2.7% MoM and 1.0% YoY after the increase by 0.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY. Analysts counted on –0.7% MoM and +1.0% YoY. During the same period, Manufacturing Production decreased by 3.9% MoM and 0.8% YoY, which also turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts (–1.1% MoM and +2.2% YoY). Index of Services in April showed an increase of 0.2% QoQ, slowing down from the previous +0.3% QoQ. GDP in April showed a sharp decline of 0.4% MoM after a decrease of 0.1% MoM in March. During the Asian session on June 11, the instrument shows flat trading, and investors are awaiting publication of data on the UK labor market.

    AUD/USD

    AUD dropped significantly against USD at the beginning of this week, departing from its local highs. Australian markets were closed on Monday due to the national holiday, so the focus was on the optimistic news about the signing of an agreement between the US and Mexico, which allowed to avoid a new trade war. Some support for AUD on Monday is provided by news from China. Exports in May showed an increase of 1.1% YoY after a decrease of 2.7% YoY last month. Analysts counted on aggravating negative dynamics and reducing the index by 3.8% YoY. Imports, in contrast, fell sharply by 8.5% YoY after rising by 4.0% YoY in April. All this led to a sharp increase in the trade surplus, which reached USD 41.65 billion in May against the previous value of USD 13.84 billion.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Monday, ending the day session with almost zero result. The dollar was supported by optimistic news about the signing of an agreement between the USA and Mexico, which made it possible to avoid imposing import duties on Mexican goods from June 10. Investors also hoped that the US would be able to make some progress in trade negotiations with China. In turn, the yen received strong support from macroeconomic publications from Japan. Japan's GDP in Q1 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ after a growth of 0.5% QoQ over the previous period. In annual terms, the growth of the Japanese economy in Q1 2019 reached +2.2% YoY after rising by 2.1% YoY in the previous period.

    Oil

    Oil prices returned to decline on Monday, retreating from the new local highs of the beginning of the month. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by Russia's uncertain position on the issue of extending the current OPEC+ deal, which ends at the end of the month. A negative factor is still the low demand for petroleum products against the backdrop of a slowdown in the global economy. Trade tensions between the US and China have not gone away, and after the G20 Summit at the end of the month, a new round of increase in duties is quite possible if the parties do not reach any agreement. Today, investors are focused on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock. The previous report reflected increase in volumes of 3.545M barrels.
  6. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-12 08:56 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed growth against USD again on Tuesday, returning to an uptrend after some decline at the beginning of the week. EUR remains heavily overbought in the nearest time intervals, as it shows an active growth since May 31, but this does not particularly disturb investors. The macroeconomic statistics from the US published yesterday was contradictory. Investors welcomed the growth of NFIB Small Business Optimism index in May from 103.5 to 105.0 points. At the same time, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index for June dropped sharply from 58.6 to 53.2 points, while analysts predicted its growth to 59.2 points. The May Producer Price Index in the USA also slowed down a bit. PPI in May showed an increase of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.2% MoM in April. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from +2.2% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of +2.0% YoY. It is also worth noting that European statistics on Tuesday turned out worse than market forecasts. Sentix Investor Confidence in June decreased from 5.3 to –3.3 points, while the forecast predicted a decline only to 2.3 points.

    GBP/USD

    GBP rebounded against USD on Tuesday, offsetting a decline of the previous day. The instrument was supported by moderately strong data on the labor market in the UK, as well as a general negative attitude towards the US currency. Average Earnings ex. Bonus showed an increase in April by 3.4% 3MoY, which turned out to be better than last month data (+3.3% 3MoY) and forecasts (+3.1% 3MoY). Average Earnings Index + Bonus for the same period slowed down from +3.3% 3MoY to +3.1% 3MoY, but turned out to be better than expectations of +2.9% 3MoY. The Unemployment Rate remained at the same level of 3.8%.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a slight decline against USD on Tuesday, retaining the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. Yesterday, the instrument was moderately supported by the data from Australia, as well as rising pessimism about the prospects for the American economy. During the Asian session on June 12, the pair is trading downwards. Investors take a lead from ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and so far ignore the optimism of Chinese data. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in June showed a decline of 0.6% MoM after rising by 0.6% MoM over the previous period. Chinese statistics showed a rapid rise in the Consumer Price Index in May from 2.5% YoY to 2.7% YoY, which coincided with forecasts. The soft position of the RBA remains a negative factor for the instrument. Last week, the Australian regulator lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, noting the negative impact of external factors. By the end of the year, the RBA plans to reduce the rate to 1%.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows ambiguous trading in pair with the Japanese yen, remaining close to the local lows, updated on June 5. The yen is still under pressure from uncertain news background and the threat of a possible easing of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. In addition, investors are currently not very interested in safe assets, although the situation remains rather unstable. During today's Asian session, statistics from Japan provide moderate support to the yen. Thus, the Japanese Core Machinery Orders in April increased by 5.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, which was significantly better than the forecast of –0.8% MoM and –5.3% YoY. In turn, Producer Price Index in May showed a decline of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM in April. YoY, the indicator slowed from +1.2% to +0.7%.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a slight decrease on Tuesday, continuing the development of a negative trend, re-formed at the beginning of the current trading week. Investors are focused on a program to reduce oil supply to the market under the OPEC+ deal. The main participants of the cartel have already agreed to extend the agreement after its termination in late June. Russia also announced the possible support of such a decision, which improved the prospects for maintaining a balance of supply and demand in the market. Yesterday's API report on Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed the growth rate for the week as of June 7 from 3.545 million to 4.850 million barrels. On Wednesday, investors expect the publication of similar statistics from the US Department of Energy.
  7. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-13 08:51 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Wednesday, departing from local highs of March 22, updated late last week. The reduction of the instrument was largely technical in nature, while the news background did not change much. EUR was under pressure after the speech by the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, who focused on the vulnerability of the Central European countries to new threats of global trade war. With the opening of the American session, investors focused on the statistics on consumer inflation from the US. In May, CPI showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.8% YoY, slowing from the previous +0.3% MoM and +2.0% YoY. Core CPI showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 2.0% YoY, which was slightly worse than market expectations. During the Asian session on June 13, the instrument is trading in both directions, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. The focus is on the German statistics on consumer inflation in May, as well as the dynamics of industrial production in the euro area in April.

    GBP/USD

    GBP continues trading in both directions against USD. On Wednesday, the instrument returned to decline, despite the publication of weak statistics on consumer inflation from the US. GBP remains under pressure from an uncertain position on Brexit and weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Market participants fear that the new Prime Minister may destroy all the fragile agreements that Theresa May has been able to reach with the EU, and will eventually choose Brexit without a deal. In particular, one of the candidates for the post of Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, does not exclude such an option. At the same time, British Treasury Secretary Philip Hammond said earlier that the UK’s exit from the EU on October 31 is an almost impossible task.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Wednesday, responding to the overall strengthening of USD across the entire market. The US dollar is growing despite the publication of disappointing statistics on the US consumer inflation, which has heightened fears of a speedy reduction in the interest rate by the Fed. During the Asian session on June 13, the instrument is trading downwards. At the same time, AUD is supported by a moderately optimistic report on the labor market in Australia in May. The level of employment in May grew by 42.3K workplaces against 28.4K last month. Analysts expected a growth of only 17.5K. Participation Rate in May reached 66.0%, while the forecast assumed that the figure would remain unchanged at 65.8%. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in May remained at the previous level of 5.2%, while experts counted on reducing it to 5.1%.

    USD/JPY

    USD was almost unchanged paired with JPY on Wednesday. The market almost ignored the publication of a weak report on US consumer inflation, while the demand for yen remained quite low amid growing interest in risk. In turn, yesterday's macroeconomic statistics released in Japan managed to provide slight support to JPY. Japanese Core Machinery Orders in April increased by 5.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, which was significantly better than the forecast of –0.8% MoM and –5.3% YoY. During today's Asian session, statistics from Japan provide support to the yen. Tertiary Industry Activity Index in May showed an increase of 0.8% YoY after a decrease of 0.4% YoY last month.

    Oil

    Oil prices declined significantly during Wednesday trading, reacting to the disappointing statistics on stocks from the US Department of Energy. According to the data, the volume of oil and petroleum products in the United States for the week as of June 7 rose by 2.206 million barrels after rising by 6.771 million barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected a decline in stocks of 0.481 million barrels. Production volumes in the United States during the reporting period decreased from 12.400 to 12.300 million barrels per day. The report also pointed to lower forecasts for growth in demand for oil for the second half of 2019. In turn, the quotes are supported by the expectation of an extension of the OPEC+ deal on limiting oil production. In addition, investors are optimistic about the development of the US-Chinese trade conflict and expect positive changes after the G20 summit, which will take place in late June.
  8. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-14 08:51 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR continues to weaken paired with USD, developing a correction impulse formed on Wednesday. USD is rising due to the ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US, but investors are also worried about the growing uncertainty around Brexit. It became known that the IMF negatively assesses the prospects for the EU to achieve target levels for economic growth; therefore, it is likely that the Fund will revise its forecasts in the near future. Yesterday, EUR was under pressure from the macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. The volume of industrial production in April fell by 0.5% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM last month. In annual terms, the decline has decreased from –0.7% YoY to –0.4% YoY, with the forecast of –0.5% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is trading in both directions against USD, mainly with a decrease since the middle of this week. Brexit remains the main driver for the pound. After the announcement of the resignation of the current British Prime Minister Theresa May, the volatility around Brexit has increased significantly, and the market has again started talking about the possibility of a country leaving the EU without a deal. One of the leaders of the pre-election race, Boris Johnson, is also considering the hard Brexit scenario. On Friday, investors are focused on the US macroeconomic statistics on retail sales and consumer confidence. In the UK, the speech by the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, is expected.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is declining against USD, updating local lows of May 24. The decrease in the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of USD practically throughout the entire market, while the macroeconomic statistics from the USA and Australia remain ambiguous. The report on the Australian labor market reflected a steady growth in Employment by 42.3K jobs, which was significantly better than expectations of 17.5K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at the same level of 5.2%, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 5.1%. During the Asian session on June 14, there are no interesting statistics from Australia, so investors are awaiting the publication of data on Retail Sales and Industrial Production from China. In addition, the press conference of the National Bureau of Statistics will be held.

    USD/JPY

    USD fell against JPY on Thursday, being under pressure from weak statistics from the US. In addition, a high level of market uncertainty provides significant support to the yen. Thursday's data from the US indicated an increase in Initial Jobless Claims by 222K, which turned out to be worse than the data for the previous period (219K) and the forecast of 216K. Import Price Index in May decreased by –0.3% MoM and –1.5% YoY, with the forecast of –0.2% MoM and –1.4% YoY. Export Price Index showed a decrease of –0.2% MoM and –0.7% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts of –0.1% MoM and –0.5% YoY. During the Asian session on June 14, the instrument is relatively stable. Some support for JPY has been provided by macroeconomic statistics on Industrial Production published in Japan. In April production volumes increased by 0.6% MoM, which coincided with the forecasts. Capacity Utilization in April increased by 1.6% MoM after the decline by 0.4% MoM in the previous month.

    Oil

    Oil prices increased significantly on Thursday, responding to information about the attack on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Such news signals not only interruptions in the oil supply, but also exacerbates tensions in the market from the possible tightening of US sanctions. Analysts believe that the US can once again blame Iran for attacks, regardless of whether the state bears any real responsibility for the incident. A certain pressure on the quotes was put by the OPEC monthly report, which among other things reflected the decline in the forecast for oil demand growth in 2019 by 70 thousand barrels per day. On Friday, investors are focused on Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count in the United States.
  9. Morning Market Review
    2019-06-17 08:43 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a decline against USD on Friday, retreating to local lows of June 6. The reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument was the strong macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as the general corrective sentiment at the market. The volume of industrial production in the US in May increased by 0.4% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts had expected positive trend to recover, but counted on 0.2% MoM growth. Capacity Utilization Rate in May rose from 77.9% to 78.1%, which turned out to be better than the market forecast of 78.0%. Statistics from the euro area published on Friday turned out to be noticeably worse. France Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices slowed down in May from +0.3% MoM to +0.1% MoM, and from +1.3% YoY to +0.9% YoY. In Italy, the volume of industrial orders fell sharply. In April, the indicator fell by 2.4% MoM after rising by 2.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by +2.4% MoM.

    GBP/USD

    GBP returned to an active decline against USD at the end of the last trading week, updating local lows of May 31. The negative dynamics of the instrument is taking place against the background of further growing uncertainty in the market, which forces investors to look for safer assets. At the same time, concerns about a rate cut by the US Fed have now faded into insignificance, since the market has partially involved this scenario in current quotes. The speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Friday did not provide any support for GBP, since it was not devoted to the prospects of monetary policy. Brexit remains a powerful negative factor for the instrument, as well as the election of a new British Prime Minister. Markets fear that the UK will leave the EU without a deal, which will cause more harm to the national economy.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a decline against USD on Friday, having updated local lows of the beginning of 2019. The development of negative dynamics of the instrument on Friday was due to strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, coupled with increased uncertainty in the market. Macroeconomic statistics from China also put certain pressure on the instrument. Industrial Production in May slowed down from +5.4% to +5.0% YoY, while analysts predicted growth of the rate to +5.5% YoY. Fixed Asset Investment decreased from +6.1% YoY to +5.6% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than forecast of 6.1%. During the Asian session on June 17, the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. The macroeconomic background is relatively poor today, so an increase in volatility is expected from Tuesday, when the minutes of the RBA meeting will be published.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed a slight increase against JPY on Friday, but still maintains the flat corridor, which has existed since June 3. Support for the US currency is provided by strong macroeconomic data from the US, as well as a reduction in concerns about the development of a recession in the US economy. Published on Friday, statistics from Japan could not provide any substantial support to JPY. Industrial production in Japan in April showed an increase of 0.6% MoM and decreased by 1.1% YoY. The data coincided with forecasts and with the dynamics of last month. Capacity Utilization in April increased by 1.6% MoM after the decline by 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a growth of +0.2% MoM.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Friday, continuing the development of a corrective impulse. Technical factors contributed to the development of "bullish" dynamics of the instrument, while the former negative background remained. Last week, the International Energy Agency lowered its demand forecast for the current year by 100K barrels to 1.2M barrels per day. A similar forecast was published by OPEC, lowering the forecast of demand to 1.14M barrels per day. The quotes are still supported by growing tensions in the Middle East: last week two tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. The US has already blamed Iran for these attacks, which could lead to a new round of sanctions pressure on Tehran.

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